Donald Trump swept to victory on Tuesday by chipping away at groups of voters which Democrats once believed would help them win the White House for a generation.
After Barack Obama’s victory in 2008, many triumphantly claimed that the liberal voting coalition which had elected the first black president was growing more powerful, as the makeup of America changed.
Older, white conservatives were reducing in number, and non-white Americans were projected to be in the majority by 2044. College-educated professionals, younger people, black Americans, Latinos and other ethnic minorities, and blue-collar workers were part of a “coalition of the ascendant”.
These voters were left-leaning on cultural issues and supportive of an active federal government and a strong social safety net. And they constituted a majority in enough states to ensure a Democratic lock on the Electoral College – and the presidency.
“Demography,” these left-wing optimists liked to say, “is destiny.” Sixteen years later, however, that destiny appears to have turned to dust
Cracks began forming when non-college educated voters slipped away from the Democrats in midterm elections in 2010 and 2014. They then broke en masse to Trump in 2016. While Joe Biden, with his working-class-friendly reputation built over half a century, won enough back to take the White House in 2020, his success proved to be only a temporary reprieve.
This year, Trump supplemented his gains with the blue-collar workers by also cutting into the Democratic margins among young, Latino and black voters. He has carved up the coalition of the ascendant.
According to exit polls, Trump won:
– 13% of the black vote in 2024 compared to Republican John McCain’s 4% against Obama
– 46% of the Latino vote this time, while McCain got 31% in 2008
– 43% of voters under 30 against the 32% for McCain
– 56% of those without a college degree – back in 2008, it was Obama who won a majority
Speaking on Thursday after his comeback victory, Trump celebrated his own diverse coalition of voters.
“I started to see realignment could happen because the Democrats are not in line with the thinking of the country,” the president-elect told NBC News.
