Copernicus Says 2026 Virtually Certain to Exceed 1.5°C Global Warming Threshold
The European climate agency predicts that 2026 will likely become the second-hottest year on record, as an intensifying El Niño adds further heat to an already warming planet.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service has reported that 2026 is now virtually certain to become the second calendar year to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperature levels, following 2024. In its climate update released on November 6, 2026, the agency said the year has a 20 per cent chance of matching or surpassing the previous temperature record set in 2024. The findings also indicate that the average global temperature between 2023 and 2026 is expected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold, highlighting the continued acceleration of global warming.
October 2026 was recorded as the warmest October in history, with global average surface air temperatures reaching 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels. It also became the third consecutive month in which temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C mark. Meanwhile, average sea surface temperatures outside the polar regions reached 20.95°C, setting a new October record and surpassing the previous high recorded in 2023. Scientists say these figures demonstrate how rapidly the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans continue to accumulate heat.
The agency attributed part of the rising temperatures to an exceptionally strong El Niño developing across the tropical Pacific Ocean. The climate phenomenon occurs when ocean surface temperatures become unusually warm, influencing weather patterns and increasing global temperatures. Copernicus reported that the temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reached 3.21°C in October, exceeding peaks recorded during previous very strong El Niño events. Scientists warn that the phenomenon could intensify heatwaves, droughts and flooding in different parts of the world, with its effects potentially extending into 2027.
The latest findings have renewed concerns about the world’s ability to limit long-term global warming under the Paris Agreement. Although exceeding 1.5°C in an individual calendar year does not mean the long-term climate target has officially been breached, the expected four-year average above that level represents a significant warning. Scientists are urging governments to accelerate emissions reductions, strengthen climate adaptation measures and expand investment in renewable energy. With El Niño adding further pressure to an already warming climate, 2027 could face even greater temperature challenges.
