WTO More Than Doubles Global Goods Trade Growth Forecast as AI Boom Drives Demand

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has more than doubled its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026, pointing to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure as a major driver of international commerce. In its updated outlook released on October 8, the organisation projected that global trade in physical goods would increase by 3.9% this year, compared with its earlier forecast of 1.9% published in March. The revision reflects stronger-than-expected trade activity during the first half of 2026, when businesses continued purchasing technology equipment despite disruptions to energy markets and international shipping. The WTO said global supply chains had demonstrated resilience by adjusting to changing conditions and sourcing essential products from alternative suppliers. However, it cautioned that the recovery has not been uniform across industries and regions, with some economies experiencing greater pressure from rising energy costs and transport disruptions.

A central factor behind the improved forecast is the growing demand for products used to develop and operate AI systems. These include semiconductors, computer servers and other equipment required by large data centres. According to the WTO, trade in AI-enabling goods increased by 67% year-on-year during the first half of 2026. These products accounted for approximately 47% of global merchandise trade growth over the same period, demonstrating how strongly the AI investment boom is influencing international commerce. Technology companies have continued investing in computing infrastructure to support advanced AI models, cloud services and automated applications. This spending has benefited manufacturers and exporters involved in semiconductor production, server assembly and related equipment. The WTO expects investment in AI infrastructure to remain an important source of demand through 2027, although any significant slowdown in spending could weaken the outlook.

The stronger performance in goods trade has also occurred despite serious disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The WTO reported that crude oil exports from the region fell by approximately 24% during the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas exports declined by 47%. Nevertheless, increased shipments from alternative suppliers helped limit the overall decline in global crude oil exports to around 6% and LNG exports to approximately 1%. Fertiliser markets also adjusted as countries sought supplies from different sources. Meanwhile, shipping companies rerouted cargo through alternative ports and transport corridors to reduce the effects of disrupted routes. Global container throughput increased by 3.9% year-to-date through July, according to the WTO. These developments suggest that international supply networks have been able to absorb some of the disruption, although the organisation warned that higher energy prices and transport costs remain significant risks to future growth.

Regional trade prospects are expected to vary considerably. The WTO forecasts that Asia will record the fastest merchandise export growth in 2026, at 9.9%, followed by North America at 5.7%, Africa at 5.6% and South America at 3.4%. Europe’s exports are projected to remain broadly flat, while exports from the Middle East are expected to contract sharply because of continuing conflict and associated disruptions. Asia is also expected to experience strong import growth, reflecting its role in global manufacturing and the supply chains supporting AI infrastructure. Africa’s projected export growth offers a potentially positive outlook for regional trade, but the benefits will depend on individual countries’ production capacity, infrastructure and access to international markets. The figures are forecasts rather than guaranteed outcomes, and the WTO emphasises that the effects of the conflict and changes in global investment could alter the results.

Looking ahead, the WTO expects global merchandise trade volume to grow by 4.1% in 2027, up from its earlier projection of 2.6%. Global economic growth is forecast at 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. However, the outlook for commercial services trade has weakened: the organisation reduced its 2026 forecast from 4.8% to 3.3%, partly because higher aviation fuel costs and disrupted transport routes are affecting travel and tourism. Services trade is expected to rebound by 6.4% in 2027 if conditions improve. The WTO also warned that a slowdown in AI investment, persistent energy-price increases or further geopolitical disruptions could undermine its projections. Overall, the latest figures highlight the growing influence of AI-related spending on the global economy, while showing that the benefits remain unevenly distributed across industries and regions.