Berkeley Earth Gives 2026 a 96% Chance of Becoming the Hottest Year on Record

Climate research organisation Berkeley Earth has raised the probability of 2026 becoming the hottest year on record to approximately 96%, according to its latest temperature analysis published on October 22. The organisation’s September report indicates that the rapidly strengthening El Niño phenomenon is pushing global temperatures towards record levels. The latest estimate represents a significant increase from the 93% probability reported a month earlier. If the forecast holds, 2026 would overtake 2024, which currently holds the record in Berkeley Earth’s dataset. The projection comes as scientists continue to document unusually high land and ocean temperatures across multiple regions, reinforcing concerns about the pace of global warming. However, the final ranking will only be confirmed after the complete year’s temperature observations have been analysed.

September 2026 was the second-warmest September recorded globally, with the average temperature approximately 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, according to Berkeley Earth. It was around 0.06°C cooler than September 2023, which remains the warmest September in the organisation’s historical record. Land temperatures were approximately 2.17°C above the pre-industrial average, while ocean temperatures reached about 1.368°C above the same baseline, setting a September record for ocean surfaces. Berkeley Earth also estimated that approximately 11.5% of Earth’s surface experienced its hottest September on record. Fifty-three countries recorded national September temperature records, including Nigeria, highlighting the broad geographical reach of the exceptional warmth.

A major factor behind the revised forecast is El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm surface waters across parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Berkeley Earth’s analysis found that the September Niño 3.4 index reached approximately 2.9°C, surpassing previous monthly values recorded during several major historical El Niño events. The organisation reported that daily values climbed even higher in early October, while climate models suggested the event could peak towards the end of 2026. El Niño releases additional heat into the atmosphere and influences rainfall patterns around the world. Its effects can contribute to droughts in some regions, heavier rainfall in others and more intense heat. Scientists also emphasise that El Niño operates against a background of long-term human-caused global warming, meaning its temperature effects occur on an already warmer planet.

The consequences of these conditions extend beyond temperature records. Prolonged heat can increase demand for electricity, place pressure on water supplies and reduce agricultural productivity, particularly in areas already experiencing drought. Changes in rainfall associated with El Niño can also contribute to flooding, wildfires and disruptions to food production. Bloomberg’s October 24 report noted concerns about droughts and floods that could push food prices higher, while scientists warned that the current warming pattern could influence temperatures well into 2027. Berkeley Earth estimates that the average global temperature for 2026 will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial baseline in its dataset. However, a single year’s temperature above that threshold is not the same as a long-term breach of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit, which is assessed over a longer period.

Despite Berkeley Earth’s strong prediction, the final result is not yet certain, and other scientific organisations have offered different assessments of the likelihood of a new annual record. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has considered a second-place finish more likely than a new record in its own outlook, illustrating how estimates can differ between temperature datasets and forecasting methods. Berkeley Earth attributes much of the recent change in its forecast to the unexpectedly strong El Niño event and the warming influence it is expected to exert during the final months of the year. Scientists will continue monitoring global temperatures, ocean conditions and atmospheric patterns as 2026 approaches its conclusion. Regardless of the final ranking, the latest findings underline the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving climate resilience and preparing communities for increasingly disruptive heat and weather extremes.