With the return of the Champions League today, Opta’s supercomputer has revealed which of the eight remaining teams is most likely to go all the way, after favourites Liverpool were knocked out in the last round.
Going into this week’s quarter-final first legs, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Inter Milan, PSG and Real Madrid are the eight teams battling to reach the semifinal stage.
Barcelona are now deemed the most likely team to win the competition, going all the way in 23.1 per cent of simulations.
The supercomputer’s calculations are made by using a combination of betting odds and Opta’s power rankings, which are in turn derived from recent and historical team performances in the competition.
Second in the list are recently-crowned Ligue 1 champions PSG, with a 19.3 per cent likelihood of winning the competition, and a similarly comfortable predicted chance of beating Aston Villa in the quarters, rated at 71.3 per cent.
Arsenal are third-most likely to win the Champions League.
They are just ahead of Inter Milan’s 13.8 per cent chance of adding a fourth Champions League title, with the Serie A leaders backed to beat Bayern Munich in 51.5 per cent of simulations in another tight draw.
Real Madrid are a surprise fifth place in the competition they have historically made child’s play of winning.
They have been given a 12.2 per cent chance of a triumph at the Allianz Arena on May 31.
Bayern Munich are in sixth, the last of the genuine contenders for the title, with Vincent Kompany’s side given a 10.8 per cent chance and are only just tipped for defeat in the quarters against Inter.
Champions League 2024-25 predictions Final Winner
Barcelona 78.20% 44.30% 23.10%
PSG 71.30% 36.20% 19.30%
Arsenal 50.20% 29.50% 15.60%
Inter 51.50% 27.80% 13.80%
Real Madrid 49.80% 25.20% 12.20%
Bayern Munich 48.50% 22.80% 10.80%
Aston Villa 28.70% 9.10% 3.70%
Borussia Dortmund 21.80% 5.20% 1.50%
