In the critical Southwest battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump run near even in the race for the White House, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. The findings come as large numbers of voters report having already cast ballots and the pool of those open to changing their mind shrinks.
Harris holds 48% support among likely voters in Arizona, according to the poll, to 47% for Trump. In Nevada, 48% of likely voters support Trump and 47% back Harris. Those 1-point margins fall within each poll’s margin of sampling error, finding no clear leader in either state.
The surveys find voters’ views largely set on who would better handle top issues, while on a range of key attributes, neither candidate has convinced a critical mass of voters that they’re the better choice. Voters in both states have at best a narrow preference for which candidate cares more about people like them, shares their vision of the country or would put the country’s interests above their own self-interest.
The Nevada poll suggests little change in the state of the race there since late August, but in Arizona, the new results point to a shift in Harris’ favor. The new poll finds Harris improving there with core Democratic constituencies such as women, Latino voters and younger voters. The shift is notably concentrated among women, who now break for Harris by 16 points, while men continue to favor Trump by a 14-point margin.
Harris’ edge with women is a bit tighter in Nevada (51% support her, 46% Trump). That closer margin is largely driven by the relative lack of a gender gap among White likely voters in the state: Trump has a 15-point lead over Harris among White men (56% to 41%) and a 12-point lead among White women (54% to 42%).
Hispanic likely voters in Nevada split about evenly between Harris and Trump (48% support Harris, 47% Trump). Harris does hold a wide lead there among voters younger than 35, though: 53% support her versus 39% for Trump.
Independent voters in both states split roughly evenly between Harris and Trump. In Arizona, 45% support Trump to 43% for Harris, a 6-point improvement in support for the vice president since August. In Nevada, independent likely voters divide 46% Harris to 43% Trump, about the same as in August.
The Democratic nominees for US Senate in each state appear to have the upper hand. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego bests Republican Kari Lake 51% to 43% among likely voters in the race to succeed retiring independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, and in Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leads in her reelection bid against Republican challenger Sam Brown 50% to 41% among likely voters.
Further down the ballot, a vote in Arizona to establish a fundamental right to an abortion in the state’s constitution has broad support: 60% of likely voters say they would vote in favor of it, and just 39% would oppose it.
Both states have robust early and mail-in ballot voting, and according to the poll, 55% of likely voters in Arizona and 42% in Nevada say they have already voted. In both states, more registered Republicans have cast ballots so far than registered Democrats. In Arizona, that still translates into a Harris advantage among those banked votes (53% of those who say they already voted support her compared with 44% for Trump), but in Nevada, those who’ve already voted tilt in the former president’s favor (52% Trump to 46% Harris).
